Scientists from CSU anticipate four hurricanes, 11 named storms and two major hurricanes this season. Six of those become hurricanes, and two of those become major hurricanes.
However, the report noted that it was impossible to precisely predict the season this early in the year, adding: We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. El Nino is always a welcome sight in the Atlantic, but stronger ones are always preferred. While tropical systems typically don't form over these waters, due to the overall circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, it has been observed that when these waters are cooler, overall tropical activity is less.
The numbers are below the median number of storms between 1981 to 2010 (12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major).
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
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"The big factor is going to be the fact that we now believe El Nino will come on board some time during the summer and will continue all the way through the rest of the hurricane season", said AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
The chance of landfall along the East Coast is 24 percent, well below the long-term average of 31 percent. Instead it briefly came ashore in SC as a Category 1 hurricane. Kudos to their team for starting what so many other private and commercial organizations have since emulated (creating other seasonal forecasts to serve their clients) using other algorithms in the following years - especially the last five.
Gray was the one who started the CSU predictions and was a co-author until his death on April 16, 2016.
For example, we checked the site for Duval County, which has a 0.4 percent of one or more hurricanes making landfall this year in the county and a 0.9 percent of a named storm making landfall.