"When we had the hurricane disruptions, that translated into strong margins and disruptions to USA crude exports".
Oil prices had their best quarter this year in the three months to September, while gold eked out a small rise, despite a negative performance for the week. Yet a growing minority - notably oil trading giant Trafigura Group - believe the paradox will be resolved next year as USA shale proves it isn't an immovable object that can continue capping prices.
Rosneft is Russia's largest oil producer. Data from the Russian Energy Ministry showed an output fell by 39 percent in September from August at the oil projects run by foreign majors under production sharing agreements (PSA). "The price remains in an uptrend above its 200-day average", wrote Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in a Tuesday research note.
"Due to this combination of production cuts and growing demand, oil could head up to its 2017 high, just above $55, or even $60 per barrel by year-end".
Foreign diplomats visit conflict-torn Rakhine
Last week Myanmar troops uncovered the bodies of 45 Hindu villagers and accused Rohingya Muslims of carrying out a massacre. The UN has urged a "safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable return of refugees to their area of origin".
Advances in US shale oil production technologies are contributing the to supply surplus and weighing on any oil price gains.
This, coupled with the reality of more oil being extracted this year and again the next, combined with the low price of its extractions, is prompting investors to pour money into the area. Yet the key question remains - can the current rebalancing effects be sustained? US crude oil more often than not falls in the final three months of the year, according to a study performed by CNBC using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho. It is down 3 percent from the October 2016 level, the benchmark when a global oil deal was reached on curbing oil production. Yes, the massive production scale of the USA oil industry has tempered.
"Compliance with the OPEC production cuts was over 100 percent in August (meaning members produced less than their quotas, on average) and USA oil inventories have been declining for several months now", said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities. If not extended, an extra 2 percent of global crude oil could flood the market.
The move by OPEC is meant for warranting balance in the oil market. Moreover, its goal for higher oil prices only invites further drilling by American producers.